UC Riverside

Conference:	BW
Expected RPI:	300.0
Current RPI:	300
Expected SOS:	217
Current SOS:	217
Current Record:	7-22
Expected Record:	7-22
Current Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Conf Record:	4-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-14
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-5
Current OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC Record:	3-9
Expected OOC RPI:	267
Expected OOC SOS:	194

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
7-22	300.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for UC Riverside.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	California (216.0)	P12	A	66-74	W	100%
11-15	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	76-64	L	0%
11-18	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	82-94	L	0%
11-26	Michigan (12.0)	B10	A	87-42	L	0%
11-30	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	55-57	L	0%
12-2	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	68-56	L	0%
12-5	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	70-59	L	0%
12-8	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	67-48	W	100%
12-17	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	77-61	L	0%
12-20	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	73-60	W	100%
12-28	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	90-82	L	0%
12-30	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	95-71	L	0%
1-3	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	A	68-65	L	0%
1-6	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	65-57	L	0%
1-11	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	65-75	L	0%
1-13	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	68-75	L	0%
1-17	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	H	57-66	L	0%
1-24	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	A	79-40	L	0%
1-27	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	69-76	L	0%
1-31	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	A	71-68	L	0%
2-7	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	A	60-64	W	100%
2-10	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	52-62	L	0%
2-14	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	62-69	W	100%
2-17	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	69-74	L	0%
2-21	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	69-65	W	100%
2-24	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	A	64-63	L	0%
3-1	Cal Poly (305.0)	BW	H	72-63	W	100%
3-3	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	A	77-59	L	0%
3-8	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	N	70-66	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

UC Riverside's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

UC Riverside's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against UC Riverside.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
UC Riverside	BW	26.41	26.41	24.81	24.81	-13.30	-13.30
UC Davis	BW	6.13	6.13	62.96	62.96	1.59	1.59
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	4.63	4.63	62.96	62.96	1.20	1.20
UC Irvine	BW	4.54	4.54	45.16	45.16	-0.44	-0.44
UC Santa Barbara	BW	4.49	4.49	67.86	67.86	1.60	1.60
Cal Poly	BW	4.43	4.43	22.22	22.22	-2.46	-2.46
Long Beach St.	BW	4.41	4.41	37.93	37.93	-1.06	-1.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	4.40	4.40	11.54	11.54	-3.38	-3.38
Hawaii	BW	4.39	4.39	53.85	53.85	0.34	0.34
Utah Valley	WAC	2.13	2.13	64.29	64.29	0.61	0.61
Pacific	WCC	2.04	2.04	40.00	40.00	-0.41	-0.41
Pepperdine	WCC	2.01	2.01	13.33	13.33	-1.47	-1.47
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.99	1.99	31.03	31.03	-0.75	-0.75
California	P12	1.96	1.96	26.67	26.67	-0.92	-0.92
Montana	BSky	1.95	1.95	76.67	76.67	1.04	1.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.87	1.87	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
Seattle	WAC	1.87	1.87	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Portland St.	BSky	1.84	1.84	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Air Force	MWC	1.75	1.75	35.71	35.71	-0.50	-0.50
Michigan	B10	1.72	1.72	78.79	78.79	0.99	0.99
Valparaiso	MVC	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.41	0.41	16.67	16.67	-0.27	-0.27
San Francisco	WCC	0.40	0.40	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.36	0.36	84.85	84.85	0.25	0.25
Portland	WCC	0.31	0.31	24.14	24.14	-0.16	-0.16
Santa Clara	WCC	0.31	0.31	34.48	34.48	-0.10	-0.10
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.31	0.31	61.29	61.29	0.07	0.07
Stanford	P12	0.28	0.28	54.55	54.55	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.28	0.28	83.33	83.33	0.19	0.19
Idaho St.	BSky	0.27	0.27	42.86	42.86	-0.04	-0.04
Nevada	MWC	0.26	0.26	79.41	79.41	0.15	0.15
San Diego	WCC	0.25	0.25	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.25	0.25	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.23	0.23	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.23	0.23	62.50	62.50	0.06	0.06
North Dakota	BSky	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.20	0.20	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
BYU	WCC	0.20	0.20	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
UMKC	WAC	0.20	0.20	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Gonzaga	WCC	0.20	0.20	88.24	88.24	0.15	0.15
Idaho	BSky	0.20	0.20	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
USC	P12	0.17	0.17	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	WAC	0.17	0.17	3.33	3.33	-0.16	-0.16
Montana St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.17	0.17	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Arizona St.	P12	0.14	0.14	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
UCLA	P12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Colorado St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Michigan St.	B10	0.11	0.11	87.88	87.88	0.08	0.08
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Utah	P12	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Indiana St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.09	0.09	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colorado	P12	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.06	0.06	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00